The Mahoning Valley Pick 6 Playbook

As touched on Tuesday night, there is a must-win Pick 6 carryover today at Mahoning Valley Race Course of $62,478, and I mean to take a big swing at it.

As captain of the TwinSpires.com Players Pool, I have a little more latitude than I do with my personal bankroll, but the overall strategy will be the same: Single #5 Za Woodman on ~50% of tickets and go deeper on the rest (which of course means those tickets will be narrower in legs 2-6).

It's a tough spot for both psychological and handicapping reasons. Psychologically because putting the bulk of your play on a single in the 1st leg "feels" more like a gamble. It isn't, of course; that's just the way the sequence fell, but it can sting to put in a big ticket and be out in the first leg.

On the handicapping front, it's not as if Za Woodman is the lock of century. He's by far the most likely winner, and his fair odds are more like even money than his 2-to-1 morning line. The problem isn't backing him, it's that there's no logical alternative. I.e. if I don't use him I have a hard time making the case for using any other horse over another.

So we'll have a pretty good idea of where we stand after leg one with strong confidence in the last two legs. Granted, I'm 4 and 3 deep in the late double in the "A" column, but if I'm live at that point to those 12 combos I'll like my chances.

The trickiest race for me, by far, was the 6th race (leg 3). #7 No Holdem Poker could get brave on the front end, and his jockey, Megan Fadlovich is celebrating a birthday today. Is she the Bill Mott of jockeys (she also rides #2 in race 1).

Good luck today!