Deterministic successfully defends title in BC WAYI Fourstardave

The streaking Deterministic rolled to a repeat victory in Saturday’s $750,000 Fourstardave (G1) at Saratoga, a “Win and You’re In” for the Breeders’ Cup Mile (G1). The son of Liam’s Map confirmed his status as the nation’s top turf performer at a mile or slightly beyond, just one week after another Liam’s Map, Burnham Square, maintained his grip on the long-distance turf division.

Trained by Miguel Clement for St. Elias Stable, Ken Langone, C. Steven Duncker, Vicarage Stable, Deterministic was defending his third title in a major turf stakes this season. The five-year-old resurfaced to win the May 2 Fort Marcy (G3) at Aqueduct again, and in his latest, he repeated in the Manhattan (G1) in course-record time at the Spa. 

The 1.61-1 favorite cutting back to a flat mile here, Deterministic enjoyed a straightforward stalk-and-pounce trip with regular rider Kendrick Carmouche, who has now steered him to six straight wins. The Fourstardave was a bit messier behind him, as the eventual third-placer Zulu Kingdom was fighting for space behind runner-up Mi Bago while covered up by fifth-placer Lagynos, but the winner made his own luck.

Mi Bago became the controlling speed with the scratch of Classic Q, his stablemate from the Mark Casse barn. The rail-drawn Rhetorical might have been expected to show more dash, if he hadn’t been acting up. 

Apparently out of sorts since the preliminaries, and still not in the best frame of mind in the gate, Rhetorical did not jump with enthusiasm. He was also without regular rider Irad Ortiz Jr., who was off his mounts after sustaining an ankle injury in a pre-race mishap earlier on the card. Rhetorical picked up a fine substitute in Manny Franco, fresh off his record-equaling day on Friday, but he didn’t catch fire until the race was nearly over. 

As Mi Bago sprinted forward, Deterministic established himself in second through fractions of :24.20, :48.54, and 1:12.19. The inner turf was still rated firm, although a sudden downpour was turning the surface wet. 

Carmouche explained his early positioning and why he waited until the stretch to ask Deterministic.

“Once my horse left there (the gate), I glanced to the corner of my eye. I saw the (No. 1, Rhetorical break) a step slow, broke a little bad. Once that happened, I let my horse ease up to (Mi Bago). I thought (Mi Bago) was just to make the pace. I wasn't worried about him.

“I thought all the competition was behind me,” Carmouche continued. “I just (sat) and wait. I didn't want to let my horse run around the turn because the water on top of the turf is a little slippery. So, once we got to the quarter pole when I squeezed him, he wanted to go home.”

Once set down, Deterministic readily overhauled Mi Bago to score by 1 1/2 lengths. His final time of 1:35.07 felt a lot faster to his rider.

“What an amazing horse. He made my career,” Carmouche said. “The best horse I ever rode in my life – hope I get many more, but I will be very pleased with just having this one the rest of my career. Miguel and his owners, his barn, his gallop hands, his grooms, hotwalkers, they deserve all the credit. I just get to do it for a minute and 33 seconds.

“It felt like a minute and 33! He was excellent. The horse was excellent,” Carmouche beamed. “I'm so proud of him. He's what you want in this industry. 

“If anybody wants to come into our sport and enjoy moments like this, this is it. We don't always have these moments, but these are the moments that bring you to horse racing.”

Mi Bago crossed the wire three-quarters of a length clear of the battle for third. Zulu Kingdom, who was stymied when trying to rally on Mi Bago’s inside, switched out for room. In the course of his maneuver, he may have affected Lagynos, who was trying to keep him in the pocket. Then Rhetorical got his act together to flash home, creating a three-way tussle for the lower rungs of the exotics.

Zulu Kingdom, Rhetorical, and Lagynos finished heads apart in third, fourth, and fifth, respectively. Capitol Hill trailed. 

But a pair of riders’ objections had to be adjudicated before the race was declared official. Lagynos’s jockey, Jose Ortiz, claimed foul against Zulu Kingdom’s Flavien Prat, who in turn lodged an objection alleging interference by Mi Bago’s rider, Luis Saez. The stewards disallowed all the claims and let the result stand. 

Deterministic has now bankrolled $3,047,265 from a record of 16-10-3-1. His first wins came on dirt, including the 2024 Gotham (G3) on the Road to the Kentucky Derby, but he found his true home on turf as his sophomore year progressed. The winner of the Hill Prince (G3) and the grassy version of the Virginia Derby (G3), Deterministic also placed in the Saratoga Derby (G1), Jockey Club Derby (G3), and Manila (G3). He’s become unbeatable on turf as an older horse. 

“He’s a special horse,” Clement said. “When you have a special horse, you just have to worry about their soundness, and you have to map out a career and a campaign for them. We’ve been fortunate enough to execute it well because, to be honest, he just makes our lives easier because he’s so special.

“I was a little worried about the ground,” the horseman added. “It was a lot softer than I thought it was going to be initially (because of the pre-race rain); however, he’s top class. He can run a mile to a mile and a quarter; in the bog or firm; speed-favoring or playing towards closers. 

“He’s just special because he overcomes these barriers consistently and overcomes these variables and everything and delivers time and time again. That’s why, without a doubt, he’s the leader of the division for the past two years.”

If Deterministic has echoed his 2025 campaign so far this term, his connections will hope for better luck in the second half of 2026. After capturing last year’s Fourstardave, Deterministic was sidelined and unable to use his Breeders’ Cup ticket. 

Clement revealed that he has his “eye on Canada” for his next target, the Sept. 12 Woodbine Mile (G1), pending discussion with his ownership group.