How I use Brisnet Ultimate PPs: Five key factors by Kellie Reilly

The Brisnet Ultimate Past Performances provide a wealth of data for handicapping races, but you can simplify things by zeroing in on the stats that work best for you.

When I start studying the Brisnet PPs (mostly for stakes races), my attention is drawn toward Prime Power, record in today’s conditions, run style stats, Speed and Late Pace ratings, and trainer/jockey combinations.

While these stats can highlight the strengths of the favorites, the real value is in clueing you into sneakier types that might otherwise be overlooked. Let’s see how they can help you explore a race from different perspectives. 

Prime Power

Think of this figure as the distillation of dozens of data points, courtesy of Brisnet.com’s proprietary algorithm, to rank the contenders. 

Prime Power is helpful to identify if the favorite really does tower over the field, or if there’s not as much separation from key rivals as the odds suggest. That gives you a sense of how much you want to try to beat the favorite, or if you’d rather lean on him to build your wagers around – whether in this race, or in multirace sequences.  

Record in today’s conditions

Still, no matter how good a horse might be in principle, the question is whether he can run up to his best in the conditions of this particular race. Look at the lifetime record section to see how a runner has performed at this track, surface, and distance. If a horse already has a history of underperforming in similar conditions, it’s obviously a red flag.

Lack of experience in any of those categories isn’t necessarily a negative, especially if a horse is eligible to prefer a switch in surface or change in distance. The pedigree stats in the Brisnet PPs are a shorthand way to decipher if a horse is bred to excel on turf, a sloppy track, or at a certain type of distance.

But the real find is a horse who’s returning to his optimal scenario for the first time in a while, suggesting imminent improvement. That horse is likely to offer decent odds too, since he’s coming off losses in less congenial spots. 

Run Style Stats

Pace makes the race, as the old adage goes, and these stats offer a quick guide to how many early speed factors may be in the mix.

The more contenders labeled “E” for “early” running style, the greater the chances for a strong pace that could set it up for horses coming from midpack (“P”) or further back (“S”). Conversely, the lack of runners with an “E” profile implies that one opportunistic horse with tactical speed could try to steal it. 

As a further refinement, the run style stats differentiate horses by the degree of speed they’ve shown, denoted by a number. Pace factors labeled “E 8” are the fastest. If the other “E” runners are all in the lower range, the “E 8” is eligible to clear them early. 

RELATED: How Brisnet running style statistics can help your handicapping

Speed and Late Pace ratings

Whenever a horse wins in visually impressive fashion, it’s easy to think that his effort was as good as it looks. But before getting too caught up in gaudy margins of victory, check the context. Did the horse run away from suspect competition? Take advantage of an easy lead, or pick up the pieces after a total pace collapse? Was the win “inflated” by the circumstances, and unlikely to be duplicated back on a typical playing field?

The Brisnet Speed and Late Pace ratings give us more substantive evidence about the merit of a performance. They evaluate how fast the horse ran in the closing stages (Late Pace) and overall (Speed), not just by the bare time itself, but by adjusting for how the track was playing that day. For example, a fast time on a track that’s producing fast times isn’t as meaningful as a good time posted on a slower surface. The Brisnet ratings indicate the difference by assigning a higher figure to the stronger performance. 

RELATED: How Pace Makes the Race: Part 1

Trainer/jockey combinations

Although the separate trainer and jockey stats are helpful, the top horsemen and riders are often well known already. The stats revealing trainer/jockey combinations, on the other hand, can shed light on less obvious patterns. 

If you’re wondering why a well-known trainer has listed a rider who’s not a household name, check the stats for that tandem in the PPs. Occasionally, you’ll spot an unexpectedly high winning percentage or return on investment when they team up.

RELATED: When a meet starts, top trainers can win races in bunches