A Longshot Play for Opening Day At Churchill Downs 2017 Homecoming Meeting

The first dirt race in 11 days in Kentucky will commence at 12:45 p.m. EDT on Friday, September 15, when Churchill Downs lifts the lid on its three-weekend Homecoming meeting.

Between closing day at Ellis and opening day at Churchill, Kentucky Downs had five days of world-class turf racing with some of the highest average win payouts in the history of the American turf. We won't quite see those average prices at Churchill, but the Louisville track more than holds its own in this regard, as last year's September meeting's winners paid an average of $12.28--a 6% premium over the national average.

The 2015 average payout was even more robust at $14.11 per winner--a 22% boost over the national average.

Who are some of those winners today? My ABC grid below lists my most logical contenders in the "A" column along with my top pick in each race in the "TP" column on the far right. We'll definitely be playing #8 Vindicta in race 6 to boost that average, as the 20-to-1 choice on the morning line sports a decent win-early pedigree and attracts jockey Florent Geroux for young trainer Sweezey.

Below is stats on the spring-summer meeting earlier this year.

 

CHURCHILL DOWNS AT A GLANCE
Avg. Winning Odds: 4.96 - 1
Favorite Win%: 36%, Favorite Itm%: 69%
EXOTICS	PAYOFF
Exacta	77.15
Daily Double	80.12
Trifecta	581.10
Pick 3	658.37
Superfecta	5,129.20
Pick 4	5,315.61
Pick 5	30,503.79
Pick 6 Jackpot	79,737.40
Future Wager	185.00
Super High Five	72,135.64

TRACK BIAS MEET(04/29 - 06/30) Distance # Race % Wire Best Style Best Posts 6.0fDirt 77 35% E Rail/Ins 7.0fDirt 48 38% E Rail/Ins 1 MileDirt 47 28% E Rail 1 1/16mDirt 56 29% E Rail/Ins Turf Sprint 13 38% E Middle Turf Routes 72 19% E/P Rail/Ins

TRACK BIAS WEEK(06/24 - 06/30) Distance # Race % Wire Best Style Best Posts 6.0fDirt 13 38% P Ins/Mid 7.0fDirt 6 50% E Rail 1 MileDirt 9 44% E Inside 1 1/16mDirt 6 33% E/P Mid/Out Turf Sprint 1 0% P Middle Turf Routes 10 40% E Rail/Ins

Who's HOT, Who's NOT
HOT TRAINERS	Starts	Wins	Place	Show	Avg. Odds	Winning Favorites	'16-' 17 Win%
McPeek Kenneth G.	19	7	1	2	8.13	3	14%
Colebrook Ben	8	3	2	2	14.55	1	12%
Connelly William R.	3	2	0	0	5.97	0	14%
HOT JOCKEYS	Starts	Wins	Place	Show	Avg. Odds	Winning Favorites	'16-' 17 Win%
COLD TRAINERS	Starts	Wins	Place	Show	Avg. Odds	Beaten Favorites	'16-' 17 Win%
COLD JOCKEYS	Starts	Wins	Place	Show	Avg. Odds	Beaten Favorites	'16-' 17 Win%
Saez Gabriel	25	0	2	5	18.87	1	13%
Gazader Rayan	13	0	1	0	25.59	0	7%
Gilligan Jack	13	0	2	0	22.95	0	11%