Top 5 Bets To Make on Smarty Jones day 2018 card at Oaklawn Park

As you can see from the At-A-Glance statistics below from the first three days (27 races) of the Oaklawn Park meeting, it's been tough sledding for chalk players with only 22% of favorites winning and an average win mutuel of $19.26, which is tops among all tracks that have run races in 2018.

Those figuring out the challenge have been handsomely rewarded in the exotic pools and especially in the multi-race pools with the average double paying more than 200-to-1, the average Pick 3 at more than 900-to-1, and the average Pick 4 at more than 5,000-to-1. The Pick 5 average is a bit skewed because nobody picked 5 on Sunday and Oaklawn pays out the pool each day rather than carrying any of it over.

That's a long way of saying I'm excited to try to figure out the 9-race Smarty Jones Stakes day puzzle on Monday, January 15, at Oaklawn. Based on my handicapping (see grid above), I see a good mix of logical races to lean on and hopefully some separators as well.

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Here are my top five betting plays for the card.

5. #9 Starstruck Kitten in race 1

There are a lot of angles to like on this horse dropping in class and cutting back for trainer Clinton Stuart with solid numbers in the applicable categories. She also sports the top last-out Brisnet.com Speed Rating and Prime Power figure--two variables that make me nervous about getting 12-to-1, but I'll be a buyer at even half that.

4. Early Pick 4 (races 2-5)

With an average $0.50 payout north of $2,500 the Pick 4s at Oaklawn haven't been easy, but they have paid off. We'll definitely be taking a swing at both Pick 4s today with some stronger leans in the early variety as we can be thin in legs 1, 3, & 4 (races 2, 4, & 5, respectively). I'll play it so at least one of those "A"s has to win and give myself a bunch of coverage with two of them.

3. The Pick 5 (races 5-9)

Sunday's Pick 5 was so tough, no one Picked 5, and the other two days paid huge with some real moon shot will pays into the last. This one doesn't look to be in upper five-figure territory thanks to the presence of obvious first and second choices in the Smarty Jones Stakes (leg 4, race 8), but it still should pay OK. All my As and Bs are $240.

2. The Smarty Jones Stakes (race 8)

I've already discussed my plan to play Combatant over Mourinho, and after discussing the race with other handicappers and hearing buzz around and at the track today, I'm even more comfortable in that decision as I see Mourinho being bet to odds on for sure. Even with the two scratches Combatant might be his 2-to-1 morning line price, and I'd take it.

1. #2 Fairway Green in race 9

Race 9 is competitive, and I'll hope to be live to more than just this pick here, but #2 Fairway Green should really benefit from the 5 1/2-furlong trip with speed on the inside on what might prove to be a cagey claim for Dewaine Loy finding a starter allowance spot with a $23,000 purse after claiming for $15,000

 

OAKLAWN PARK AT A GLANCE
Avg. Winning Odds: 8.63 - 1
Favorite Win%: 22%, Favorite Itm%: 56%
EXOTICS	PAYOFF
Exacta	151.93
Daily Double	429.43
Trifecta	1,218.22
Pick 3	1,815.80
Superfecta	10,041.63
Pick 4	10,397.70
Pick 5	15,967.80

TRACK BIAS MEET(01/13 - 04/15) Distance # Race % Wire Best Style Best Posts 6.0fDirt 303 24% E/P Rail 1 MileDirt 63 24% E/P Middle 1 1/16mDirt 132 17% E/P Inside

TRACK BIAS WEEK(01/12 - 01/14) Distance # Race % Wire Best Style Best Posts 6.0fDirt 15 20% P Outside 1 MileDirt 7 0% E/P Rail/Ins 1 1/16mDirt 5 20% S Rail/Ins

Who's HOT, Who's NOT
HOT TRAINERS	Starts	Wins	Place	Show	Avg. Odds	Winning Favorites	'17-' 18 Win%
Fires William H.	3	3	0	0	9.77	0	9%
Lukas D. Wayne	8	3	0	2	16.00	1	10%
Mason Ingrid	8	3	1	0	6.89	0	14%
HOT JOCKEYS	Starts	Wins	Place	Show	Avg. Odds	Winning Favorites	'17-' 18 Win%
Court Jon Kenton	12	3	2	0	11.63	0	13%
COLD TRAINERS	Starts	Wins	Place	Show	Avg. Odds	Beaten Favorites	'17-' 18 Win%
Villafranco Federico	10	0	0	3	18.47	1	24%
COLD JOCKEYS	Starts	Wins	Place	Show	Avg. Odds	Beaten Favorites	'17-' 18 Win%
Parker Deshawn L.	13	0	2	1	18.55	0	16%